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The distribution of distances is as follows: Looking more closely at the actual distances of the races, the distances at which Derby starters over the entire 1992-2018 time period broke their maidens ranged from 3 to 9 furlongs, with a mean of 6.756 furlongs and a median of 6.5 furlongs.

Extended Sprint means a one-turn or straightaway race of more than six furlongs.

Sprint means a one-turn or straightaway race of six furlongs or less.

The five maiden starters during that period are not included in this or any other charts, given that they focus on maiden wins. Over that time period, that includes 493 of the 498 starters. Over the entire 1992-2018 period, this is the distribution of distance categories of races in which non-maiden Kentucky Derby starters broke their maidens. Of course, there would be some who won going short: either because they were route horses but more precocious or classy than their foes, because they were versatile, because their trainer’s program emphasizes working up to a longer distance, or because they were stone-cold sprinters whose owners had a bit of Derby Fever. I would expect, since the Kentucky Derby is a mile and a quarter race, that horses would generally break their maidens going long, or at least going longer than an early-season baby race. Information for international starters was supplemented with data from the starters’ pages on, as well as (for Japanese starters), (for UAE starters), as well as contemporaneous news accounts.

Most of the data points were gathered from reading their charts published on.

So, I researched the maiden victories Kentucky Derby starter from the 1992 Kentucky Derby to the present, and began to mine the results for patterns. As we all know, correlation does not mean causation - but in such a cluttered world as the racing calendar, correlation may offer a few suggestions on which kinds of maiden races to watch a little more closely. Though baby races begin in March and April, the real excitement begins to build through the summer with the loaded maiden special weights at Saratoga and Del Mar, and continues through the classy winter racing at Gulfstream and Oaklawn.īut, I wondered if there were any trends that could suggest the types of maiden races whose winners tend to go on and start in the Kentucky Derby in a more methodical way than just following the buzz, or in a finer-grained way than just looking at all the maiden races on the A-level circuits. Most people who follow two-year-old races have a general idea of what kinds of maiden races to follow in order to find potential Kentucky Derby contenders.